Leadership BITES
Leadership BITES
Erik Korsvik Østergaard, Anticipatory Leadership
In this episode of Leadership Bites, Guy Bloom and Erik Korsvik Østergaard discuss the evolving landscape of leadership in the context of future trends as set out in Erik's book Anticipatory Leadership, particularly focusing on the implications of technology and AI. They explore the importance of futures literacy, emotional engagement, and the need for organizations to foster agency among their teams. The conversation emphasizes the significance of involving individuals in the planning process to create a sense of ownership and confidence, ultimately leading to a more adaptive and resilient organizational culture. In this conversation, Erik Korsvik Østergaard discusses the importance of strategic foresight and futures thinking in navigating the complexities of modern leadership and organizational change. He emphasizes the need for leaders to be responsive and anticipatory, integrating futures literacy into their strategic planning to better prepare for uncertainties. Through his books, he explores the traits of effective leadership and the necessity of storytelling in mobilizing teams towards a shared vision of the future.
Takeaways
- Erik helps leaders understand future trends and their implications.
- Organizations need to think about multiple futures, not just one.
- AI will require leaders to be more tech-savvy in the future.
- Emotional responses to trends are crucial for engagement.
- Creating agency among team members fosters ownership and confidence.
- Involvement in planning leads to a sense of purpose.
- Wholeness and self-leadership are essential in modern organizations.
- Short-term and long-term planning must coexist.
- Adaptability is key in navigating future challenges.
- Regularly discussing trends can build futures literacy in teams. Organizations are currently more short-sighted than long-sighted.
- China's strategic planning is generational, unlike Western approaches.
- Innovation in Europe is being stifled due to current challenges.
- Futures thinking should augment existing strategic planning.
- Futures literacy is essential for critical thinking about the future.
- Storytelling is crucial for mobilizing teams around a vision.
- Leaders must be responsive to navigate complexities.
- Any day can be a fresh start for change.
- Futures thinking can apply to immediate and long-term scenarios.
- Engaging younger talent in futures thinking is vital for adaptability.
Sound Bites
- "I help leaders understand future trends."
- "AI will require leaders to be tech savvy."
- "The future is unevenly distributed."
- "Hope, ownership, confidence, and agency."
- "Doctors are shifting their identity."
- "Plan your way out of problems."
- "It's a thousand little adaptations."
- "China plays chess while we play drafts."
- "It's all about mobilization."
- "Any day is day zero for change."
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Guy Bloom (00:00.303)
It is, I absolutely love it. So listen, Eric, absolutely fabulous to have you on this episode of Leadership Bytes. Welcome.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (00:10.362)
Thanks. Thanks for having me.
Guy Bloom (00:13.294)
Well, you know, I've got to the point now, we're 130 episodes deep and I don't know if I've said this before, but I'd have anybody on at the start and that sounds awful for the first two or three people that were on, but actually they were great people, but I just knew them. So I was lucky to know some good people. But now I have got to that point of...
really just having an anticipation, which is fantastic with the name of your book, but an anticipation of wanting to have some conversation with somebody who's clearly got a position and an insight and an experience on certain things. So on that note, let's swiftly move into, I know who you are because obviously you're here and you know, if you're at a, I often say this, if you're at a party and somebody said, well, what do you do? What would you say?
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (01:03.564)
I think I will say first of all, I'm a Dane. I live in Denmark. But I work as a leadership advisor with a focus and a keen eye on the movements within the future of work. So I help a lot of leaders and organizations in the private sector to understand how these trends may or may not affect them and whether or not they like the effects that they have. And then we go into design of the organizations and the leadership.
And that's what I do.
Guy Bloom (01:38.158)
So I love this. The podcast is called Leadership Bites. So you're at the right place, which is a good start. And I work with people in terms of coaching and team effectiveness and running leadership programs. But this is this step forward from that. I I do talk about direction and where are things going. But it's not my wake up thinking about it space. So what is that?
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (01:42.126)
Mmm. Woohoo! Yeah.
Guy Bloom (02:06.093)
we're going to spring to life that element of almost what is the day job? What would we find you doing in a 12 month period?
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (02:11.472)
Hmm.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (02:18.186)
At the moment, I'm doing a lot of traveling. Almost on a weekly basis, you will see me in the airport in Copenhagen traveling somewhere out in Europe because I'm meeting up with leadership teams, leadership groups, business units, and helping them discuss how the movement, how the trends within leadership, business, technology will
affects or might affect their organization. And there's a pull from them and it is around Europe at the moment to understand how they can prepare themselves and how not only prepare but how they can play an active role in shaping their organization, shaping their futures. Not only being affected by them in a passive way but leaning forward and having agency and actually designing and shaping.
their futures. That's a lot of what I do. there's a lot of workshops, there's a lot of team coaching. I'm not that good of a personal coach, but doing organizational coaching or CEO whispering, that's a lot of what
Guy Bloom (03:38.264)
So in that, just to make sure I've translated it for myself, there's something about people not getting swallowed by the hamster wheel that they're on, and there's something about that ability to... I have a quote that I, probably the only one I've ever learned, which is...
F Scott Fitzgerald going, the sign of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing crews and still function. So there's something about the day job and the absolute sort of dealing with the now and then having an eye to the future, being able to hold the truth of today, but prepare for not be caught out by and maybe even to go above the rent horizon and go actually don't just think 12 months, actually what could you
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (04:07.406)
Mm-hmm.
Guy Bloom (04:29.495)
hazard a guess at how far are you going in that process and in that thinking?
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (04:34.832)
Super question because that's straight into one of the cruxes of one of the things that I do. When we talk about, in these leadership teams, when we talk about the future, first of all, they talk about the future as one future that is predetermined or planned ahead of them. So I lark them into talking about futures in plural, both in time and in space and in
how it might evolve, so options. Second of all, some of these, some of these like technology trends or what goes on in society or on geopolitical spheres at the moment, they may have an effect on 10 years, 20 years horizon. To some people, is too abstract. So we really try to find that
That spot where we are, it's beyond their current planning because when you have an anchor budget for a company or you have a tactical execution that might be one year that's pretty locked down into projects and investments in their portfolio. But looking at a maybe three year time horizon, that might be the sweet spot. Three year, five years is a sweet spot for those conversations. Some of these people, they...
They have grown up in an organization where you make strategies and you make plans based on where you are and where you think you want to go. So from A to B. And that's it. You can call that a linear planning. We know where we are. We know where we want to go. You take a ruler and you make that line between A and B. Boom. Then you have your anchor budget and then you had your planning and you have your hiring situation and then your business model that you develop.
What I try to help them understand is what if you don't know B? What if you don't know where you want to go or where you need to go or where you have to go? What if we instead of focusing so much on where we are, focusing what affects us in these planning situations? So we might take a look at what goes on in IT, what goes on in the life science situation, what goes on in the automotive industry, pulling out maybe eight or
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (07:00.976)
10 trends and then just juggling them in our heads. What might happen? How might these trends unfold? What's the likelihood of any of these trends affecting us? Maybe 0%, maybe 50%, maybe 100%. And then adding to that, and this is where what I really like is asking people whether or not they like the effect a trend have. Because that conversation about do you like what is going to happen?
makes people talk about emotions, anxiety, joy, sadness, engagement, peacefulness, hopelessness. And that conversation about emotions is really one of the best outputs that we have from these.
Guy Bloom (07:46.06)
really like that. I've done a workshop where I've run it before where I've called it Event Horizon, which is thinking above the Event Horizon. And I'm not coming at it with your skill set.
But I do, and what I didn't think of. So, you know, I'm happy to go, that's why you're here. Which is, it's very hard, I think, for somebody to sit in a room and imagine a future that is probably outside of their ability to think past where they are right now. But following trends.
Looking at where the ball's rolling. That's an easier road to follow to then actually go. So if that domino, if those dominoes kept going, where would it go? So rather than having to come up with one massive leap, you know, and go, right, let's go 10 years ahead and what could it be? Well blimey, that's...
That's like saying, might you be in 10 years? go, well, I'm not really quite sure. But where are you now? Where does it feel like you're going? What are you seeing? That, is much more palatable, much more doable. that sounds like a... If I've understood, that puts people into a much better space to be able to follow that thinking.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (09:11.546)
Exactly. It is palatable to some because there are some people who really hate that and say, come on, man, why don't we just make a plan and execute according to it? They have been brought up doing that. They have done that in business school. They have been doing that for 10, 15 years as leaders, executing based on plans. So some people really hate it. But those people...
who then jump into, not with just a toe, but with both feet into that lake of, let's be plastic. Let's be playful. Let's see what happens, as you nicely say, when the dominoes start falling. Take any trend that we might look at. One trend could be AI, just to be very, very blunt with the AI is coming. So what in your organization, what will be the...
direct consequences of AI in a leadership team. And then what will be the indirect consequences? So having these, like literally making a map on a table. Let's say you have a leadership team sitting together, just six people, clever people, because that's what they are when they are, they are clever, they are bright, experienced. And in the middle of the table, you place just a little post-it note saying, AI will be here.
that will require any leader and any doer to be extremely tech savvy in the future. So, and then have them silently brainstorm and write on post. It's the first order consequences. And then have them talk about that and then have silently brainstorm about the second order consequences. And exactly that this workshop, it's a 20 minute workshop and it just creates so much insights into people's anticipation, people's...
emotions, people's imagination about what are the effects. And that's just one of the maybe 10 or 15 trends that might affect them over the next five years. So having that as one of the workshops for people to get insights into emotions, anticipations, is so wonderful because that's where it starts.
Guy Bloom (11:25.579)
Yeah, AI is, I think is, I mean, it's something we can all definitely wrap our head around. I think the speed of shift, when I run courses, I am now always saying, who knows, I don't say who knows what AI is, because everybody does now know what it is, but who knows, for example, what chat GPT is? And a certain amount of hands will go up. 60, 70 % have heard of it.
Then I'll go, how many of you have actually used it? Then I usually get down to about three or four people from a room of fifteen. And then I'll go, who's using it every day or every week? Then we're down to maybe there's one straggler. And if I said, have you heard of Grok? The Elon Musk equivalent? No. No. Now if I'm in attack...
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (12:02.272)
wow.
Guy Bloom (12:20.171)
tech savvy business. Yes, but if I'm outside of an ecosystem that thinks and talks like that.
It's really not there. And then if I show somebody just how I might use it, for example, whatever that might be for a LinkedIn post or just to query something or to come up with 10 questions for a podcast, who knows what it is. And one of the things I do is go, who in here has any health and safety or anything like that? say, ask me a technical question that you want to put in a letter. And of course it generates a response. And the person's eyes normally go incredibly wide and go, well, it's not perfect, but it's 80 % of the way there. And I go,
right. Now I'm fascinated by actually
how that initially starts as very, very interesting. But then people don't necessarily do anything about it. It's the adoption factor. And I've come to the conclusion that it's quite... I mean there are some people that are very interested, but generally speaking there seems to be a little bit of a link to how long they think they've got left in their career.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (13:33.498)
Ha! That's so funny.
Guy Bloom (13:36.256)
Right and there seems to be something that says if I'm younger I go revelation I better pay attention to this because over the next x amount of years this is going to make a difference but if I'm of an age and I've got five years left eight years left or I'm on an earn out or something like that I go it's interesting but actually the motivation to actually pay attention to a thing
Because for some people it's not going to be in my career life cycle. They don't... So actually the exercise of doing the thinking is very interesting for them. But the transmission into actually caring enough about where you are to set up a future state to sow a seed that you might not see the tree grow. I'm very interested in that and I just wonder... I've just monologued there a little bit but I kind of would just love your reaction to it.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (14:26.224)
I can see that too, the closer you are to maybe ending or sliding out of some kind of career, the less curious you are when it comes to trends. But there are some people who even on the verge of closing down, they insist on being curious and I really, really like that. It's also interesting in the stats that you mentioned about how many people use...
Guy Bloom (14:48.086)
Yes.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (14:55.608)
use AI in daily work because in the the circles where I work there, there's a lot of people who does that, who knows it both Chati Pati and Grok and DeepSeek and Perplexity and Copilot and all the others. They know of them. They use them on a daily basis. it. Yeah, yes. So there might be back to the original idea of that.
Guy Bloom (15:13.879)
these are tech savvy industries.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (15:23.972)
the future is unevenly distributed. that's maybe just highlighting that specific fact. But taking just, now we just wrap it, hold into AI, that's just having that conversation on any kind of trend that might affect an organization. And it is literally, as I said, it's a 20 minute exercise. And you can slowly start doing that once a month in your leadership team.
So once a month you have somebody pull out this month's trend that we work with and just carve out 20 minutes to start doing that. Because what you're building is not only a library of first order, second order consequences of trends, but you're also slowly building the organizational capability of futures literacy. You are slowly working on people's imagination and they
Over that time, over a time period, they will build a sense of looking to the horizon, sensing ideas that may or may not unfold in their organization, try to imagine how they might unfold, and then building that into their leadership decision-making, into their imagination, into their storytelling, into their whatever kind of leadership.
decisions they are making. And what we are talking about here is one of the things in futures thinking and futures literacy is a thing called using the future, which is imagining what is going to happen, imagining how that feels and then using that emotional response and that insight to make decisions today. And that is the whole idea.
about futures thinking and futures literacy is to imagine how something could be, should be, and then make decisions today to either avoid that position if it's shitty or to nurture the organization in a new direction if it's attractive. That's the whole idea.
Guy Bloom (17:37.248)
this. I mean I really do. To the point where I actually want to pause the podcast and go and have little think about it and then come back but we can't. And I think it's very powerful. There's something about here, yeah, if you're in an environment where that's where everybody's heads at, they're thinking they have a relatively adaptive environment where there's new market shift, there's new expectations on...
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (17:45.52)
Mm-hmm.
Guy Bloom (18:01.997)
innovative products and services and you can be caught out at any moment by a competitor, I can see how that really, really fits in. I think then there are other organisations like facilities management or construction or... Now, it's not that there aren't future thinking innovations, but actually I think there's something about different organisations and environments and cultures will go at different paces. But actually, if we're going to create talent,
if we're going to bring people through, if things are accelerating, we don't understand how Boston robotics is going to affect construction. Right now, that would seem ridiculous to have a robot on site. But actually, building a wall. But actually, stick an AI on it when those fingers get a little bit more nimble. Who knows where we'll be within 100 years? So I'm actually quite interested in.
whether or not organizations care about a time that they're not going to be in. And I think there's a development piece here, these 20 minute chunks, it's bringing it in, it's sowing the seed, it's getting people to organically take on board that thinking. So actually, it's not that you're challenging them.
to 80 years from now, 100 years from now, because blah, you know, but actually, if that's how we think, if we are futures thinking, if we can hold two truths and still function, actually over a period of a few years, that could just, we have an eye to the future. So it's not always about the great leap to innovation and, we've got a future plan 100 years, but I think what I'm hearing is bring it in as a way of thinking, put it into the, it, normalise it, and actually,
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (19:21.572)
Right. Yeah.
Thank
Guy Bloom (19:48.703)
then will have its effect. I think that's what I'm feeling there.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (19:53.166)
Yeah, correct. So, okay, you really fired me up because there's a lot of things that we can dive into now. So some of the organizations that work with strategic foresight, which is the nerdy way of talking about this, they literally discuss how are we, how will our organization look in a hundred years time? They literally do that. Organizations do that. Some governments...
think about that, think about their kids' And in that sense, there is there's a lot of learning when it comes to ethics. What do we actually want to be in that future or in those futures? But pulling it closer to a time horizon where people have agency is really, really interesting. And
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (20:52.602)
Some of the people in an organization might not be used to being involved in this and might not feel that they can have an effect on their work. It might also be so that the organizational trends or the technology trends or the societal trends or the business trends that are going on does not have an effect on their daily life. But the idea of involving people, involving people in sharing their
expectations or assumptions or myths about what is going on, has an effect on hope. It has an effect on ownership of the planning. It has an effect on confidence in the plans and it creates agency. And those four, I call them the HOCA, hope, ownership, confidence and agency.
is the emotional effect that we get out from doing this. Let's take a case because there's a really concrete case in this. I worked with an outpatient clinic in Denmark. They work with diabetics and they had the idea of what if we actually dive into the consequences of more people getting sick, more people getting chronically ill.
more people getting multiple diseases when they grow older. More people, or actually less people in the hospital system, in healthcare, being able to help them. Fewer nurses, fewer doctors, fewer biotechnicians, fewer clinicians. So we have a growing population of people that need help.
and less people that are able to help them. So we have a system that is going to break in 15 years. What will happen when we unfold these trends? What will happen when we then add in AI that will help a GP doing consultancy with the patient? What will happen when we add in wearables where we have almost real-time data?
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (23:13.806)
What will happen when these wearables actually provide the patients with more knowledge than the doctors and the nurses? And by activating not only the doctors, but also the nurses actually in imagining how this is going to unfold, we ended up creating agency. We ended up with a bunch of people who leaned forward in creating and shaping
the future for these patients, the patient pathway. And this is really interesting as a consequence of this. One other consequence is that these doctors, they learned that they are not only looking at new technology, not only looking at an increase in patients, but they are also looking at a shift in identity. So doctors are shifting their identity from only being doctors, but also looking
with the tech-savvy lenses on human beings and data, and helping people on a more holistic platform. That created, in those conversations, we surfaced anxiety, and that came out as aggression.
And all of that talk, when we then dialled it back into, OK, what can we actually do about this? What kind of agency do we have as doctors and nurses to change the trajectory of where we might go if we passively just sit around? I like this so much. It's so powerful.
Guy Bloom (24:43.063)
you
Guy Bloom (24:53.911)
Hmm. So there's really something here about, there's a thing in the military which is when you have a problem, plan your way out. Because when you have a plan, it's something that you've got to speak about, it's something that you can all then commit to, it's then something that you feel that you've contributed to, it gives you a sense of purpose, it gives you a sense of control. Now, it's not
guarantee that it's going to work, but that's almost not the point. Because actually if you can continually plan, plan, plan, plan as adaptions come, you'll probably get to where you want to go. But I think what I'm translating it and making sure I understand it, in all of that, I love these words agency. I think this is a really powerful word.
But actually there's something about involvement and inclusion and actually not being on the outside looking in, not feeling it's being done to us or there's a momentum that we can't be a part of because it's just external to our role. But actually in the conversation and then in the contribution to the thinking and then etc. etc. then you're the wisdom of the crowd. But then there's the involvement, the community, a sense of purpose. There's so much going on there.
if I've understood that correctly.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (26:15.76)
Totally. Totally. this is called Leadership Bytes. To me, it really ties into some of the ideas that also emerged with Frédéric Leloux 10 years ago with his book Reinventing Organizations. If we look at what characterizes the Thiel, the Thiel culture that he talks about, it's about wholeness, it's about self-leadership, it's about evolutionary purpose.
And this is exactly what we talk about. These doctors, nurses, they bring their wholeness to the table. We actually ask them, what is your emotional response to a trend? How does that feel? That taps into the wholeness of people, whether or not they are sad or mad or hopeless or hopeful or whatever it is. It's also about self-leadership to enable people to take part in it, be part of co-creating this.
And then having, as you said, the planning, adjustment, agility to wiggle your way through it. That kind of evolutionary purpose or the co-owned meaningfulness of what we are going to do is really, really interesting. It's absolutely something to that.
Guy Bloom (27:32.11)
I do love the fact that with all these great bits of vocabulary we use, what I love is this idea of actually what does this allow us to do? It allows us to wiggle our way through it. It's actually at its most simple. You know, it is the hand on the tiller on the boat. It's a thousand little adaptions. Even though there's one place we're heading to, it's a thousand little adaptions. And I like that.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (27:42.766)
Mmm.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (27:55.6)
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There's this classical way of as a leadership team, need both to have the short horizon planning and the long horizon planning. And to do both at the same time is something that we need. So we need the idea of telling the story about where we want to be in five years. And then having the short wiggling.
to navigate through that, because as we go along in these five years, something might happen. I think only a few of us had the idea of imagining the effects of Trump coming back in the seat for the second time and how that is affecting financial decisions in Europe at the moment. Few of us had the idea of that, what might happen. So what I see happening right now,
with, for example, geopolitical situations right now is that the organizations are more short-sighted than long-sighted at the moment. So they try to imagine their way through that, but they do that in a shorter, with shorter wiggle room than, well, they have a tendency to be currently more short-sighted than long-sighted at the moment. But they actually need to have both.
Guy Bloom (29:21.645)
So if you look at somebody like China, for example, and the way that they, it feels like they play chess and we're playing drafts, you know, they almost have a generational plan. Now, regardless of whether or not I agree with it or like it, that's not the point. But as a strategy, yes, they seem to make, obviously, they're making actions in the moment, but they almost seem to be, have something that says, you know, this can run for so long that we'll pass this on to the next group as a plan, which isn't how we think.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (29:27.61)
Mm-hmm.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (29:49.264)
I'm not a super expert on China. There people who are more skilled in tonight. So I'm only referring this or reacting on second hand. But what I understand from the people that have that kind of insight is that the Chinese are very, very good at executing when they have ideas and really throwing time, money and attention on something and executing on that.
Guy Bloom (29:53.276)
my.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (30:17.664)
and they have discipline to pull through and follow through on all of their actions. So they can be really aggressive on technology and on rolling out solutions where some of the initiative and some of the innovation muscle in Europe may have been stifled over the past years. if we want to, we need to get in gear on that.
But that is currently being challenged. I have some conversations with some of my peers in Europe that the innovation muscle is being stifled in Europe or is stifled in Europe at the moment. the focus is both the financial and the mental focus currently is just to wiggle. There's so much going on when it comes to that. So there's not much time and much energy.
of financial surplus to do strategic planning at the moment. It's like responding to curveballs constantly at the moment.
Guy Bloom (31:25.761)
Now I'm going to just, just because I want to cover more than one avenue with you, because unless we do podcast part two and three and four, which I have a sense I could easily do with you, but you'll go, a life to live and it doesn't include you. you didn't have to confirm it that quickly, but that's fair enough. So you obviously, well obviously, but you're the author.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (31:35.204)
Hahaha!
Mm.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (31:43.642)
Good point.
Guy Bloom (31:51.598)
of some books and it would be great just to hear those titles, just that the first one was, the second one was and let's put a little bit of energy into the third one which is the most recent. But it would be great just to kind of capture those and for people to get a sense of it.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (32:09.488)
Wonderful. In 2018, I wrote and published my first book called The Responsive Leader. And not responsible. It could have had a but responsive, which is actually what are the traits and behaviours and virtues of a leader that can respond to what goes on around and how can we navigate that. So it's a lot about sensing and listening and being present. The second one then discussed.
organizational design in a future where a lot of things go on. And I built that book on Frédéric Lalou's work. So my book is called Teal Dots in an Orange World. And if people have read Lalou's book, they instantly understand what this book is about, which is small pockets of progressive collaboration inside an otherwise hierarchical structure.
So that kind of mix between small teams that are nimble, that can wiggle, and the need for scalability discipline, which is absolutely something that I see going on in the complex industries at the moment, being life science, being healthcare, being automotive industry. Some of these which are complex and complicated and have regulations. They...
look into mixing progressiveness with some kind of traditional prediction. With the work that I did based on that book, I saw the need to adding in a third component, which is the idea of futures thinking. Taking the trends to the table.
We needed some way, some kind of mechanistic way of actually doing this. And my third book is called Anticipatory Leadership, which is that kind of leadership who works with anticipation, who works with futures thinking and futures literacy and use it to shape the organization, shape their governance, shape their cultures in the light of where they believe.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (34:29.424)
they want to go. So the third book is about future's thinking and future's literacy. first chapter, the first part of that book rather, that is about framing why are we actually looking at this, the Vukov world, the Barney world, the idea of not going from A to B, but from A to something that we do not know. The second part is about the toolbox, like diving into here are the eight, 10, 12 tools.
that in a sequence will help you go through a process of futures thinking and what also futures literacy is compared to that. The third part is taking that into context. What are actually the cases and what are the applications in an organization when it comes to that? So being a field guide, a practical field guide. And the fourth part is about
the leadership that it either requires or builds and is about the emotional output from that. The hope, the ownership, the confidence and the agency.
Guy Bloom (35:42.381)
Gosh.
think there's so much that I think for me, it's challenge to me as well, I just recognise, you know, I'm in this space and I talk about the future, but, and I hope I'm preparing people for the future. But actually what I'm so excited about in hearing you talk is the fact that actually it is its own avenue of thinking and not just a, hey, if there are...
things about your resilience and how you frame an argument and actually the vocabulary that you use and the definition of the kind of leader that you want to be, all required to allow you to function. But actually this idea of this anticipatory leader, this futures thinking, actually that is a defined way of thinking that really should be added into that armoury.
And I think I'm probably interested in your thoughts and whether or not you can go into this space with me is I can understand that people that already think like this would want to work with you. For example, if I'm into fitness, having a personal trainer makes sense. Right, I can wrap my head around that because I'm already in that space. I wonder if the what the call to arms is or the
You know, don't have to start massive, you don't have to do a massive developmental programs, but actually for organizations or people in HR roles or in the developmental space that might be hearing this and thinking, this probably isn't how we think, but it probably is something that we should start to think about. How do they start to maybe get people in the organization interested in paying attention to a thing that actually might get
Guy Bloom (37:42.473)
little bit of pushback of really? know don't think we're busy enough dealing with what we've got to deal with now? How does that... what's the other way that somebody might start to plant the seed and bring that in do think Eric?
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (37:48.176)
Hmm.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (37:55.44)
My experience is that the most efficient way is not to make a full replacement of your current existing strategic planning in favor of a foresight approach. But that might not be efficient because you have so much legacy when it comes to how we do stuff. That just to shifting that into something new might be really, really...
really difficult and maybe not worth it. But the best way that I have been working with this is to add this in as an addition, as an augmentation of the existing strategic or tactical thinking. Let's say we have a life science company that has an existing
way of doing strategy. They do that. They start quarter three and then they by the end of quarter three and they're going into quarter four. They have the strategy for the next five years and update to that and they have the anchor budget for that. What we could do then is say, okay, cool. What if we start working with the possible consequences of your strategy? What are the possible futures for the organization in R &D?
in IT, in production, in marketing, and then take the strategy as it is. not just take a strategy. We trust these people. are clever people. They have made the strategy, but then start to imagine the consequences of it locally to see how it can unfold. So use strategic foresight of future thinking as an augmentation to your existing work is really, really an easy way.
into that. And then it's one day, two days of workshop that you add in to give people that those ideas of, these might be the consequences. And then talking about, OK, what will be the negative consequences and what can we do to avoid them? What would be the positive? Maybe not plausible. There might be some of the positive consequences that are not likely to happen. But what can we do to increase the likelihood of these scenarios? That kind of adding in to it.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (40:13.068)
Then over time leads people into going to use future thinking as a lead in to their strategy discussions. So we're slowly tipping from doing traditional strategy work into actually using this for the tactical planning and then have this kind of in and out and
like a seesaw when we go into strategy. First we do some strategy planning, then we do some foresight, and then we use that foresight into strategy planning and we use that for the foresight. that seesawing into that, that's a way to do it. That's one way of the menu to do it.
Guy Bloom (40:52.205)
So...
so it's not an instead of, an and.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (40:59.172)
That's what I see. Also because we and of course we need that when we start working with futures thinking and we start imagining futures, we are working with things that do not exist. Literally, the future does not exist. It's only the stories that we tell. It's only the stories that we tell each other. A strategy is a story. A budget is a story. It's only storytelling. So from those futures, let's say we imagine we going to somewhere, let's call it X.
Guy Bloom (41:00.545)
Yeah.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (41:28.036)
we calculate backwards, that's called backcasting. From that backcasting, we then add in all the traditional way of planning, budgeting, risk making, risk management, all of those traditional approaches. also use, of course we use them, but we just use them based on where we want to go and not based on where we are. Totally flipping them.
Guy Bloom (41:56.334)
I also get a strong sense that even though when I hear this topic it makes me think, well clearly of the future because that's in the title, but there is something about actually this can help very much for in the moment thinking because the future might be what's going to go on this afternoon or tomorrow and I wonder if those strategies and those tools are inherently true for any length of future.
not just the one that's over the horizon.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (42:28.784)
Absolutely. Yeah, you're right. We all have futures thinking in us. Guy, what are you having for dinner tonight? That's futures thinking. Literally, that's futures thinking. So we all have it inherently. To me, it's more about having the shared conversations and having a time horizon in which we can affect something that does not exist, that we have not planned for. As I said, we might have in the organizations...
Guy Bloom (42:36.512)
Exactly.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (42:56.472)
In our family's plans for the next six, 12 months, we might have budget for that. So the projects in the portfolio that we have initiated, let's just work with them. But on the backside of those, that's where we want to have the futures thinking, the futures literacy kicking in.
Guy Bloom (43:16.337)
this because there is something about you know you know what's for dinner tonight well actually and what are the consequences of you not planning well I'll end up having a takeaway and getting fatter again so actually it's just this you know there is something about them if that I think I've come to a point where if things are true they're generally true everywhere you know and that that's very powerful I think to be able to multi-purpose
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (43:26.724)
Hmm.
Guy Bloom (43:46.25)
something that it's not just for one avenue of thinking. Yes, it might have its birthplace there, but in truth, if that is about the future, then this future might be tomorrow, next week, next month. Yes, and it may go as far as you like, but actually an organisation might be excited about the future, not just necessarily something that's over the horizon. And that feels like a real avenue to bring in
to people that if you're bringing, especially into maybe to younger talent, that idea of thinking, they may feel quite displaced from enabling the direction of an organisation. But actually, use this thinking for next week, next month, next year, for your own career, for your own... And actually, that then becomes very adaptive.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (44:25.624)
Absolutely.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (44:31.12)
Mm-hmm.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (44:36.622)
Yes, spot on. that's what you're talking about. That is futures literacy. The ability to think abstractly about what is affecting you, to think about your assumptions about what is affecting you. That is futures literacy that you are training. And then there's adding in the idea of not only thinking about where are we going, but what is affecting us as we go along.
I really like those conversations. What is pushing you as you step on that? You stand on this carpet. Something is pulling the carpet and you need to get down in your knees and lower your hip to be stable on a carpet that is constantly moving.
Guy Bloom (45:26.349)
I actually just used that word futures literacy. Futures thinking, for me, it's kind of the same thing, but it's almost like we're going to think about the future. But if we're future literate, that's any timeline.
any scenario and it comes into my way of, I suppose at the start I talk about doing and being in leadership which is a familiar term but actually what we might be doing is a workshop and what we might be doing is thinking about the future but actually if what we're being is literate in this way of thinking then actually it becomes
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (45:56.654)
Yes. Yeah.
Guy Bloom (46:00.746)
organic to our frame of reference for anything that we deal with as opposed to a one-off intervention where we're called on to kind of put that future thinking hat on before we go back to the day job. So I like that idea of being literate because actually it means I understand it and I can think unconsciously about it as well. I like that.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (46:22.424)
Yes, futures thinking is, I'm being black and white and binary here. Futures thinking is the structured approach to have the workshops and to have that kind of planning and execution where futures literacy is the ability to think critically and absolutely about the future and also be able to story tell and also know why we do that.
why this is an important thing.
Guy Bloom (46:53.389)
Yeah, and the storytelling is something that I'm very, very interested in when I talk about personal narrative or a team's narrative or as an organization, what is our narrative? Because if we want to attract people in, be it through to clients and stakeholders, et cetera, cetera, our personal brand. So the storytelling, the narrative around futures thinking and being future literate, is it because actually
you can sit there and come out with an example of the future. But actually if you don't bring people along then it might be intellectually correct but people aren't engaged. Is that what that is or bring that alive and correct me if I haven't understood that element of it?
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (47:40.58)
That element is absolutely right. is the ideal. Let's imagine that you are in a leadership team and you are doing your strategy work and you need to mobilize people. Then you need to tell that story either about a shitty future. We could end up in this situation. This is plausible.
This could happen, this could happen, this could happen. We need to fire half of the people. We need to shut down the engagement that we have with the people in Italy and all of that. This is possible. So dear, dear colleagues, what's your reaction to this? I hate this. Excellent. How can we, what can we do to avoid that this story that I'm telling you actually becomes real? And now I have a different story for you. What if this might happen?
AI comes and it moves in that direction. We have all these trends going on with the leadership and we end up in this situation. It's what's your emotion to it? What's your reaction? I like that. Cool. How can we mobilize our efforts? How can we mobilize the people to change direction, to change some of our processes, our SOPs, how we make decisions, the structures, how we do teaming, how we do salaries and titles so we navigate the organization, so we wiggle our way through.
to that story that I just told you. It's all about mobilization.
Guy Bloom (49:06.327)
Yeah, okay. So listen, Eric, I'm super aware of people's appetites to listen to podcasts versus my appetite to keep talking. So I have to just kind of contain myself. think anybody that's listening to this, I will put the links in the description soon. You've heard the...
Guy Bloom (49:33.879)
So I just want, I have the Anticipatory Leadership is your most recent, Teal Dots in an Orange World was your second. Just remind me of your first one again, Eric.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (49:45.166)
the responsive leader.
Guy Bloom (49:47.086)
Thank you very much. If I'd have been more professional, I'd have written that down as you were saying it. So we've got three books. Now we've also got your website or a website. Good morning, April. Now I already know what it is, but I'd love to hear you just talk about what is the thinking behind...
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (49:50.832)
No problem.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (49:59.504)
Yes.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (50:12.868)
Yeah. It's a good morning. April is a name that's a two-parter. Good morning, first of all, is the idea that any day is day zero. Any day is a day where we wake up with fresh eyes to what comes. So the legacy of what we did yesterday, we tried to shake that off and see what's coming. April, at least on the Northern Hemisphere, is the month of growth and nature and nurture. And it could also...
Guy Bloom (50:13.239)
Where does that come from?
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (50:41.356)
snow and rain and whatever kind. So there's a lot of changes for the positive going on in that month. So combining those two, Good Morning April, is a poetic embracement of change readiness.
Guy Bloom (50:57.983)
it. So I love everything about this conversation, which is great. So listen, I'm going to say I'm you know, this has fired me up. It definitely made me start to think and again, you know, it's not new news, but it's when you speak to somebody that is steeped in a thing and understands a thing and what I call a craft level. It's the differential between understanding a thing intellectually and having somebody bring it to life.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (51:03.758)
Super!
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (51:20.794)
Mm-hmm.
Guy Bloom (51:27.821)
the succinctness and the clarity of their thinking. So I've hugely enjoyed this. And it's been a catalyst for me to go and buy some books. know, which is great. And I'm sure others will feel the same. So listen, I'm going to bring this to a close, just stand for a few moments to make sure everything uploads. But from me and anyone and everyone listening, this has been, for me anyway, and I'm sure for others, very engaging and quite motivational.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (51:37.857)
super. That's awesome.
Guy Bloom (51:57.633)
And I would absolutely, I don't always say this, sometimes I have people on with books and I go, what's your book? I think if you're listening to this and your brain's itching a little bit, going, ooh, go and scratch that itch and go and buy some of these books and read them. I think that's my observation. So on that note, Eric, thank you so very much.
Erik Korsvik Østergaard (52:17.36)
Thank you for having me. That was very, very kind of you.